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Canada could be coronavirus-free by late August, Singapore scientists say

A group of scientists at the Singapore University of Technology and Design have come up with a mathematical model, that if correct, would peg the end of the COVID outbreak in Canada at the end of August.

The US could finally be free of the coronavirus in late September, and the whole world can expect to put the pandemic behind them in December, says the group of scientists in Singapore.

A mathematical model created by the university  is allowing the scientists to predict the future of the virus using data from already confirmed cases and deaths around the world.

Based on “a predictive-monitoring” technique, the model inputs global data which is converted to a bar chart. A curve over the top of the chart displays the trajectory of the disease. At the end of April, predictions showed that the US would be virus-free by Sept. 20 and the UK could see the end of the coronavirus by Aug. 27 around the same time as Canada.

Under the predictive modelling scenario Canada’s outbreak would end roughly 140 days from May 7th, or the end of August

Scientists at the university cautioned that their dates were not exact and that the predictions should not lead to hasty ends of lockdowns around the world.

“Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus,” they said. They also said the dates could be altered based on government actions to either relax quarantine measures too soon or to re-impose them.

The full report is here

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