Another big COVID surge as province suggests daily totals could hit 1,000 per day

The Province reported 625 new cases of COVID19 overnight, marking the second largest 24-hour period of new cases since the pandemic hit. There were four deaths recorded as well. Hospitalizations are also up by 13 to 150. The Ontario government today released updated COVID-19 modelling, which shows the province is experiencing a second surge in cases similar to what other jurisdictions have experienced. The Chief Medical Officer of Health says Ontarians must be vigilant in adhering to public health measures to reduce the number of new cases and the spread of the virus.

“COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today’s modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures,” said Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health.

Key highlights from the modelling update include:

Ontario is currently on an upward trajectory similar to what its peer jurisdictions, including Victoria, Australia and Michigan in the United States, have experienced.

Cases are currently doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days.

The growth in cases was initially in the 20 to 39 age group but now cases are climbing in all age groups.

Forecasting suggests that Ontario could be around 1,000 cases per day in the first half of October.

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy is currently steady, but it is predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized.

Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow.

In order to reduce the spread and the number of new cases, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including avoiding large gatherings, physical distancing and wearing a face covering.

“With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” said Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health. “We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”