If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in an Abacus survey, the PCs have 38% of the vote with the Ontario Liberals at 29% and the Ontario NDP at 22%. The Ontario Greens are at 5% while other parties get 7% of the vote.
Since April, the PCs are up 2, the Liberals down 3, and the NDP and Greens are holding fairly steady.
Regionally, the are PCs trailing the Liberals in Metro Toronto, but ahead by a wide margin in the GTHA (postal code starts with L), eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario.
The PCs also lead among eligible voters over 30 with a 14-point lead among those 60+, a 13-point lead among those aged 45 to 59, and a 13-point lead among those aged 30 to 44. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 34% with the PCs well back at 20%.
Liberals by 13 among renters. Outside of the GTHA, the PCs lead by 35-points over the Liberals.
Among those most likely to vote, the gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals is also 9% with the PCs getting 38%, the Liberals getting 29% and 20% for the NDP.
Over the past few weeks, the desire for change hasn’t varied. Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government (down 1 since April) while 19% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome.
The desire for change in Ontario is far lower than the week before the 2018 provincial election and a little less than the final weekend of the 2021 federal election.
Perhaps most important, “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split almost evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention.
One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:
(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or
(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 5 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/