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Forecasting data suggests the Omicron peak may be near

Forecasting data suggests the Omicron peak may be near

If projections by Hamilton Public Health are correct, we may be getting close to the peak in new Omicron cases in Hamilton. In what is termed a Scarsin Hospitalization forecast presented at Monday’s Board of Health meeting, the presentation showed hospitalizations peaking between January 12th and January 19th in a medium-case scenario, somewhat earlier in a worse-case scenario. The medium-case scenario predicted Hamilton Hospital admissions would peak at 25 hospitalizations per day. Hamilton hospitals are currently showing 256 cases of COVID, an increase of only eight since Friday and 30 ICU cases—three less than Friday.

The forecast suggested that under a worse-case scenario Hamilton would experience 1046 hospitalizations between January 10th and the end of February and under a better case scenario the number would be 760. As for the critical ICU capacity, under the worse-case scenario there would be 221 ICU admissions to the end of February compared to 84 in the better case scenario.

In other stats produced today, staff demonstrated the impact of vaccinations. A chart shows that unvaccinated persons are more than three times more likely to require hospitalization than individuals with three shots, and four and a half times more likely to end up in ICU.

In terms of vaccinations approximately 1.1 million doses have been administered in Hamilton to date. Nearly 89 percent of residents aged 12-plus have had two doses, 45 percent have had three, and just under 40 percent of children 5-11 have had their first shot.

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