If the2021 Election polling numbers released today are a true reflection of voter intentions, Canada is on its way to presenting a political landscape more like Israel or Italy, where no party can win a majority and coalitions are the norm. The overnight Nanos tracking poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals holding a slight lead with 31.3 percent to the Conservatives 29.2. Two weeks before he called the election Trudeau held a 13-point lead over O’Toole. The CBC=Eric Grenier seat tracking shows the Liberals with a five point lead in seat-rich Ontario and in the end, that could spell the difference, although Grenier rates the Liberal’s chance of forming a majority at 16 percent. In addition to Nanos, four other pollsters released new results, all of them showing the election to be in a statistical tie with no more than two points separating the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP were up slightly to 20.9 percent. The Peoples Party continues to show strength at 7.3 percent and could prove to be the spoiler in the campaign. The Bloc was at 6.4 and the Green Party sits at 3.9 percent. Erin O’Toole, on the question of who would maker the best Prime Minister trailed Trudeau by four points. There are still nine percent who tell Nanos they are undecided.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.