The overnight Nanos tracking poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail shows virtually no change in the statistical tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals with the Liberals at 31.9 percent and the Conservatives at 30.4 percent. The only party to show a change of any significance was Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada which picked up almost a point to 7.5 percent and threatens to be a spoiler in close ridings in some parts of Canada. The NDP were at 20.3 percent, the Bloc at 5.8 percent and the Green Party unchanged at 3.2 percent. On the question of who would make the best prime minister Trudeau held a two-point lead over O’Toole-30 to 28 percent.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.