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See-saw election race goes down to the wire: Nanos

See-saw election race goes down to the wire: Nanos

With only four days of campaigning left in the election campaign, Pollster Nick Nanos is calling the race a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives. The overnight Nanos tracking poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals back in the lead with 31.9 percent to the Conservatives 30.3. Conservatives in the lead again, well within the margin of error. The NDP are favoured by 21.2 percent. The Peoples Party continues to show strength at 6.7 percent and could prove to be the spoiler in the campaign. The Bloc was at 6.4 and the Green Party sits at 3.7 percent. Down a half point. Green Party leader Annamie Paul, in an interview with CBC’s Rosemary Barton acknowledged that her party’s turmoil had hurt not only the party’s chances but her own, and hinted that she would not be party leader much longer. Erin O’Toole, on the question of who would maker the best Prime Minister trailed Trudeau by three points.

Nanos Methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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