Polling conducted by IPolitics and Mainstreet research shows some surprising shifts in voter preference trends between Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. On a day when the Liberals have narrowed the gap between themselves and O’Toole to about two percent, some of the sub-data may fly in the face of people’s perceptions.
Although Justin Trudeau, at 49 is actually a year older than Erin O’Toole, in past elections it was Trudeau’s appeal to the youth that was credited for his success-certainly in 2015 and to a lesser degree in 2019. But the latest Mainstreet polling shows O’Toole actually two points ahead of Trudeau with the youngest cohort of voters (18-34), By 25.8 percent to 23.4 percent. With the second youngest cohort, (35-49) O’Toole enjoys a 11-percent lead.
Also the Conservative Party is not normally the one most likely to be supported by LGBTQ voters, but again O’Toole outscored Trudeau by a more than two to one margin with respondents who identified as “non binary,” 31.7 percent to 15.3 percent.
With men, O’Toole has the lead over Trudeau 39 to 25 percent, and it’s the reverse with women, where Trudeau leads O’Toole 35 to 25 percent.