The lead that the Liberals opened on the Conservatives in the federal election was short-lived according to Nanos Research. In their daily tracking poll Nanos shows the Conservatives opening an almost three point lead over the Liberals, sitting at 33.7 percent. The Liberals fell back more than two percentage points to 31 percent even. The NDP improved by a point to 20.3, the BLOC were up slightly to 6.8 , the People’s party were up nearly a point to 4.1 percent and the Greens continued to struggle amid internal dissention to drop a point to 3.5 percent. Other Polls, Mainstreet and EKOS show wider leads for the Conservatives, but the Nanos poll is the only one that sampled voter intentions Monday.
IPolitics and Mainstreet have consistently shown the Conservatives with a wider margin than other polling companies. They show the Conservatives leading the Liberals by nearly 8 points. In seat projections they show the conservatives with 151 seats to the Liberals 130 and the NDP 35. But they also show some possible shifts. In its commentary, Mainstreet suggests the Bloc is losing ground in Quebec which could help the Liberals. In Ontario they see roughly 15 905 area close ridings that could go either way and if one party is able to sweep those ridings, it could spell the outcome of the election.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.