For the first time in over a week the Nanos Research Poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows the Liberals opening up a slight lead over the Conservatives. The Liberals have 33.2 percent support in overnight tracking polling and the Conservatives 32.5. Other Polls, Mainstreet and EKOS show wider leads for the Conservatives, but the Nanos poll is the only one that sampled voter intentions Monday. Both the NDP and Green numbers were down, perhaps explaining the 1.9 percent increase by the Liberals as progressive voters attempt to figure out the most strategic voting option. The conservatives only lost 0.2 of a percentage point. The NDP dropped .8 pf a percent to 19.2 percent and the Greens dropped 1.3 percent to 4.6 percent. The Bloc increased their share by more than half a percentage to 6.4 percent and the Peoples Party came in at 3.3 percent.
IPolitics and Mainstreet have projected the Conservatives with 147 seats, the Liberals 129 and the NDP 32. The green would get two seats and the Bloc 28. In its commentary, Mainstreet says:
- In Quebec, the Liberals have opened up a 9% lead again over the Bloc, with the Conservatives 12% back, and that could give them back an edge in four or five seats.
- In Ontario, however, the Conservatives who have jumped out to an 8% lead.
- Meanwhile, even though the NDP started out this campaign well ahead of where they finished in 2019, their standing has hardly moved since then and they have been consistently at 18% or 19%.
- In B.C., the big Conservative lead has settled down but still remains at 9% ahead of the NDP and 12% ahead of the Liberals.
“While we are seeing real movement all over the country, the overall totals have not changed very much. There are still a large number of seats still in play, and a great many will likely shift back and forth over the next three weeks. In large measure the outcome of the election may well rest with the fate of those seats.”
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.