Heading into week three of the campaign the Nanos Research Poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives still leading the Liberals 32.7 percent to 31.3-a slight narrowing of the gap since Sunday. The NDP came in at 20 percent even, the Greens at 5,9 percent which is an improvement of almost one and a half percentage points from a week ago, the BQ at 5.8 percent and the People’s Party at 3.6 percent.
The CBC Grenier Poll Tracker says the Liberals are still favoured to win the most seats but there is still a two-in-five chance that the Conservatives emerge with the most seats. The chances of a majority government, be it Liberal or Conservatives, has fallen to below 20 per cent. The NDP could nearly double the size of its caucus compared to 2019, while the Bloc looks likely to drop a few seats. IPolitics and Mainstreet have the Conservatives ahead in total seats for the first time-146 to 130 for the Liberals
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.