For the first time since the election was called, the Nanos Poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail shows the Conservative in the lead, albeit well within the margin of error and in an extremely tight race for the top two spots. The latest figures show the O’Toole conservatives with 34.4 precent, The Liberals with 33.6, NDP at 18.9, Bloc at 5.3, Green at 4.3 and The Peoples Party at 3.1.
In separate polling conducted by Mainstreet Research for I Politics the seat projection shows the Liberals at 153-17 shy of a majority. The Conservatives at 127, the NDP at 34, Green at 2, and Bloc 22.
In its notes, Mainstream says
The Conservatives have consolidated their national lead at 3%. This has been the case for the last three days. It’s still close, however, and not sufficient to give them a plurality of seats yet.
In Ontario the Liberals could survive in a lot of places. Despite a small lead the Conservative vote is not sufficient or efficient enough, at this stage, to gain them a substantial number of seats there. However, if we see the Conservative lead grow by a few percentage points in Ontario, that could have national implications.
In Quebec, the Conservatives appear to be taking some votes from the Bloc Quebecois, which has them tied for second. This, in fact, will help the Liberals win some close races, especially in suburban seats around Montreal.
Among millennials, (18-35) the Conservatives have been leading for a while, with the NDP a close second and the Liberals further back in third place. In 2015 Trudeau did very well with this group. It remains to be seen if this will impact the election and how, but it is worth keeping an eye on these numbers.