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After one week Liberal lead narrowing: Nanos

After one week Liberal lead narrowing: Nanos

The race between the Liberals and the Conservatives is tightening up as the Conservatives gain ground. A Nanos poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail shows that when the election was called last Sunday, the Liberals held a five-point advantage over O’Toole and the Conservatives. New numbers released this morning show that lead has shrunk to 1.9 percent.

According to the latest nightly tracking ending Friday, which was released Saturday morning, support for the Conservative Party has increased by 3.9 per cent between Aug. 12 and Aug. 20.

“It’s gone from a double-digit advantage to a single-digit advantage to now a horse race between the Conservatives and the Liberals,” Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research, told CTV News Channel on Saturday.

The most recent survey shows Liberals still out front, with 34.2 per cent ballot support, up from 33.4 per cent on Aug. 12, but with the Conservatives inching closer to their lead, now with 32.3 per cent ballot support. The poll also showed O’Toole closing the gap when respondents were asked who would make the best Prime Minister. O’Ttoole still trails Trudeau in that category by seven points but improved considerably from his showing before the writ was dropped when only 17 percent of respondents thought he would be the best PM.

The NDP have 20.2 per cent, the Green Party meanwhile has decreased from 7.9 per cent to 4.3 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois’ ballot support sits at 6.1 per cent, down from 6.3 per cent, and the People’s Party has 2.1 per cent of ballot support, up from 1.9 per cent.


A national random telephone survey (land- and cellular-line sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing Is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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