US Democrats are worried that Joe Biden’s consistent lead in the national and key state election polls could lead to the complacency that denied Hilary Clinton the presidency in 2016. Joe Biden’s team are also telling reporters the gap between the two candidates is narrower than some of the numbers that are being reported in the media. The other problem is discrepancies between polls. For instance, in Michigan, two polls were released on Friday. One by The Hill/Harris had Biden ahead by 11 points, but a poll by the Trafalgar Group had Trump up by a point. The Trafalgar poll was an outlier, however; Biden is averaging a 7 point lead in seven polls conducted in Michigan over the last week. Still it undermines confidence in polling. There is also a theory going around that started in 2016 that Trump supporters deliberately lie to pollsters either because they don’t want to admit they are supporting trump, or as a tactic to foster false confidence in Democratic election teams.
In Florida Biden shows an average 1.4-point lead. In 8 polls taken since the beginning of October Biden has been ahead in six of them. Trump took Florida in 2016 by a narrow margin. Whoever wins Florida walks away with 29 electoral votes. In Pennsylvania, six polls have been conducted in October, all giving Biden an average lead of 4.4 points. In North Carolina, the most recent poll released Wednesday shows Trump and Biden tied. Biden had been showing a small lead in previous polls conducted in October. The most recent poll in Arizona has Biden ahead by three points.
One of the big surprises of this election is the lead Joe Biden enjoys in fundraising. Biden had a poor track record for fundraising in the past, and indeed he lagged very badly in the primaries. It wasn’t until he won the nomination that the money started to come in, and now it has become a flood, enabling Biden to outspend Trump on advertising in the key battleground states.
It’s not likely to win any new votes for Biden, but today’s Sunday New York Times, in an unprecedented display of partisanship, has devoted its entire editorial section to a call for Trump to be ousted. A large headline reads A MAN UNWORTHY OF THE OFFICE HE HOLDS. A sub-head reads “Donald Trump can’t solve the nation’s most pressing problems because he is the nation’s most pressing problem.